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Eik-Tønsberg vs Flint — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Eik-Tønsberg
Eik-Tønsberg
FT
3 – 1
Flint
Flint
10/23/20213. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 12Tønsberg Gressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eik-Tønsberg65%
×Draw18%
Flint17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eik-Tønsberg
2.40
Flint
1.15

Eik-Tønsberg creates 109% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Eik-Tønsberg
2.50
Flint
1.29

allows per match

Eik-Tønsberg
1.00
Flint
2.29

finishing

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par
Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eik-Tønsberg ↓

Flint →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Eik-Tønsberg or draw
83%
Eik-Tønsberg or Flint
82%
Draw or Flint
35%

Winning margin

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+
42%
Flint wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals
91%
Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals
69%
Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals
42%
Flint 1+ goals
68%
Flint 2+ goals
32%
Flint 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)
79%
Flint (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eik-Tønsberg at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Flint away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eik-Tønsberg attack 2.50 + Flint defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.40

Flint attack 1.29 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Eik-Tønsberg scores more
65%
level
18%
Flint scores more
17%

Eik-Tønsberg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Eik-Tønsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Eik-Tønsberg 3–1 Flint

Eik-Tønsberg beat Flint 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Tønsberg Gressbane in Tønsberg.