Eik-Tønsberg 5–0 Express: Result & Stats

Eik-Tønsberg

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Express

4/30/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 4Tønsberg Gressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eik-Tønsberg77%

×Draw14%

Express10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eik-TønsbergExpected goals in this matchExpress

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.03

Eik-Tønsberg

3.04

Express

1.03

Eik-Tønsberg creates 195% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

3.00

creates per match

1.38

0.69

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Eik-Tønsberg

3.00

Express

1.38

allows per match

Eik-Tønsberg

0.69

Express

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par

Express+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eik-Tønsberg ↓

Express →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Eik-Tønsberg or draw

90%

Eik-Tønsberg or Express

86%

Draw or Express

23%

Winning margin

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+

57%

Express wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals

95%

Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals

80%

Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals

57%

Express 1+ goals

64%

Express 2+ goals

28%

Express 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)

89%

Express (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eik-Tønsberg at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Express away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eik-Tønsberg attack 3.00 + Express defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 3.04

Express attack 1.38 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Eik-Tønsberg scores more

77%

level

14%

Express scores more

10%

Eik-Tønsberg at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Eik-Tønsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff