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Eiger vs Staal Jørpeland — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Eiger
Eiger
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
8/18/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 16Bøgh Hafsø banen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eiger42%
×Draw23%
Staal Jørpeland35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eiger
1.71
Staal Jørpeland
1.55

Eiger creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Eiger
1.54
Staal Jørpeland
1.79

allows per match

Eiger
1.31
Staal Jørpeland
1.89

finishing

Eiger+0.00on par
Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eiger ↓

Staal Jørpeland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eiger or draw
65%
Eiger or Staal Jørpeland
77%
Draw or Staal Jørpeland
58%

Winning margin

Eiger wins by 2+
22%
Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Eiger 1+ goals
82%
Eiger 2+ goals
51%
Eiger 3+ goals
24%
Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
79%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
46%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Eiger (draw refunded)
54%
Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eiger at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Staal Jørpeland away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eiger attack 1.54 + Staal Jørpeland defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Staal Jørpeland attack 1.79 + Eiger defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eiger scores more
42%
level
23%
Staal Jørpeland scores more
35%

Eiger at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eiger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eiger vs Staal Jørpeland

Eiger beat Staal Jørpeland 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Bøgh Hafsø banen in Egersund.