Eiger 2–0 Fyllingsdalen: Result & Stats

Eiger

FT

2 – 0

Fyllingsdalen

6/4/2023

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 8Bøgh Hafsø banen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eiger60%

×Draw20%

Fyllingsdalen20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EigerExpected goals in this matchFyllingsdalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.18

Eiger

2.17

Fyllingsdalen

1.18

Eiger creates 84% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.54

creates per match

1.05

1.31

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Eiger

1.54

Fyllingsdalen

1.05

allows per match

Eiger

1.31

Fyllingsdalen

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eiger+0.00on par

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eiger ↓

Fyllingsdalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Eiger or draw

80%

Eiger or Fyllingsdalen

80%

Draw or Fyllingsdalen

40%

Winning margin

Eiger wins by 2+

37%

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eiger 1+ goals

89%

Eiger 2+ goals

64%

Eiger 3+ goals

36%

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals

69%

Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals

33%

Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Eiger (draw refunded)

75%

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eiger at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eiger attack 1.54 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.05 + Eiger defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Eiger scores more

60%

level

20%

Fyllingsdalen scores more

20%

Eiger at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Eiger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff