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EIF vs Mariehamn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

EIF
EIF
CANC
12:00
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
4/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ekenäs Centrumplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

EIF50%
×Draw22%
Mariehamn28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.91
Mariehamn
1.37

EIF creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

EIF
2.25
Mariehamn
0.86

allows per match

EIF
1.88
Mariehamn
1.57

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

EIF or draw
72%
EIF or Mariehamn
78%
Draw or Mariehamn
50%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
28%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
85%
EIF 2+ goals
57%
EIF 3+ goals
30%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
75%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
40%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
64%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 2.25 + Mariehamn defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.91

Mariehamn attack 0.86 + EIF defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

EIF scores more
50%
level
22%
Mariehamn scores more
28%

EIF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: EIF host Mariehamn

April 10, 2021: EIF take on Mariehamn in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

EIF host Mariehamn at Ekenäs Centrumplan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.