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EIF vs HJK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

EIF
EIF
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
6/26/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundEkenäs Sparbank Arena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EIF12%
×Draw18%
HJK Helsinki70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
0.86
HJK Helsinki
2.33

HJK Helsinki creates 171% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

EIF
1.14
HJK Helsinki
2.65

allows per match

EIF
2.00
HJK Helsinki
0.59

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

EIF or draw
30%
EIF or HJK Helsinki
82%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
88%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
4%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
58%
EIF 2+ goals
21%
EIF 3+ goals
6%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
90%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
67%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
15%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 1.14 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.86

HJK Helsinki attack 2.65 + EIF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

EIF scores more
12%
level
18%
HJK Helsinki scores more
70%

HJK Helsinki at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EIF vs HJK Helsinki

EIF and HJK Helsinki drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on June 26, 2024.

The match was played at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN in Raseborg.