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EIF vs HIFK Helsinki — Friendlies Clubs 2026

EIF
EIF
FT
0 – 4
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
6/17/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ekenäs Centrumplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

EIF37%
×Draw22%
HIFK Helsinki41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.73
HIFK Helsinki
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

EIF
2.25
HIFK Helsinki
1.80

allows per match

EIF
1.88
HIFK Helsinki
1.20

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

EIF or draw
59%
EIF or HIFK Helsinki
78%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
63%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
19%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
82%
EIF 2+ goals
52%
EIF 3+ goals
25%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
84%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
55%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
47%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 2.25 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.80 + EIF defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

EIF scores more
37%
level
22%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
41%

HIFK Helsinki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EIF vs HIFK Helsinki

HIFK Helsinki beat EIF 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 17, 2020.

The match was played at Ekenäs Centrumplan in Raseborg.