Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

EIF II vs PP-70 — Suomen Cup 2018

EIF II
EIF II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
PP-70
PP-70
5/7/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundEkenäs Centrumplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

EIF II29%
×Draw19%
PP-7052%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF II
1.92
PP-70
2.58

PP-70 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

EIF II
1.33
PP-70
3.83

allows per match

EIF II
1.33
PP-70
2.50

finishing

EIF II+0.00on par
PP-70+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF II ↓

PP-70 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

EIF II or draw
48%
EIF II or PP-70
81%
Draw or PP-70
71%

Winning margin

EIF II wins by 2+
15%
PP-70 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

EIF II 1+ goals
85%
EIF II 2+ goals
57%
EIF II 3+ goals
30%
PP-70 1+ goals
92%
PP-70 2+ goals
72%
PP-70 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

EIF II (draw refunded)
36%
PP-70 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

PP-70 away — creates 3.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF II attack 1.33 + PP-70 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

PP-70 attack 3.83 + EIF II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

EIF II scores more
29%
level
19%
PP-70 scores more
52%

PP-70 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "PP-70 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EIF II 3–2 PP-70

EIF II beat PP-70 3-2 in Suomen Cup on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Ekenäs Centrumplan in Raseborg.