Eidsvold 2–1 Raufoss II: Result & Stats

Eidsvold

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Raufoss II

8/28/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 17Myhrer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eidsvold86%

×Draw9%

Raufoss II5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EidsvoldExpected goals in this matchRaufoss II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.84

0.90

Eidsvold

3.84

Raufoss II

0.90

Eidsvold creates 327% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

4.54

creates per match

0.88

0.92

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Eidsvold

4.54

Raufoss II

0.88

allows per match

Eidsvold

0.92

Raufoss II

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eidsvold+0.00on par

Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eidsvold ↓

Raufoss II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Eidsvold or draw

95%

Eidsvold or Raufoss II

91%

Draw or Raufoss II

14%

Winning margin

Eidsvold wins by 2+

71%

Raufoss II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Eidsvold 1+ goals

98%

Eidsvold 2+ goals

89%

Eidsvold 3+ goals

71%

Raufoss II 1+ goals

59%

Raufoss II 2+ goals

23%

Raufoss II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Eidsvold (draw refunded)

95%

Raufoss II (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eidsvold at home — creates 4.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eidsvold attack 4.54 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 3.84

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Eidsvold defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Eidsvold scores more

86%

level

9%

Raufoss II scores more

5%

Eidsvold at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Eidsvold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff