Eidsvold 1–6 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Eidsvold

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Fredrikstad

S. Rudi 87'

N. Solberg 89', 70'

L. Reuterswärd 82'

H. Johansen 64', 6'

R. Alba 59'

8/29/2020

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Myhrer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Eidsvold28%

×Draw20%

Fredrikstad51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EidsvoldExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.23

Eidsvold

1.63

Fredrikstad

2.23

Fredrikstad creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

2.26

creates per match

2.63

1.84

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Eidsvold

2.26

Fredrikstad

2.63

allows per match

Eidsvold

1.84

Fredrikstad

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eidsvold+0.00on par

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eidsvold ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Eidsvold or draw

49%

Eidsvold or Fredrikstad

80%

Draw or Fredrikstad

72%

Winning margin

Eidsvold wins by 2+

13%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Eidsvold 1+ goals

80%

Eidsvold 2+ goals

48%

Eidsvold 3+ goals

22%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

89%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

65%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Eidsvold (draw refunded)

36%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eidsvold at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eidsvold attack 2.26 + Fredrikstad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fredrikstad attack 2.63 + Eidsvold defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eidsvold scores more

28%

level

20%

Fredrikstad scores more

51%

Fredrikstad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

H. Johansen

34'

M. Nielsen

46'

N. Solberg← H. Duman

57'

I. Kristjansson

59'

R. Alba

64'

Maikel← R. Alba

64'

H. Johansen

66'

S. Teksum← I. Kristjánsson

69'

S. Molde

70'

N. Solberg

73'

J. Kolstad← O. Stenseth

73'

L. Reuterswärd← H. Johansen

73'

K. Getz← A. Ali

80'

O. Jansson← M. Nielsen

82'

84'

84'

87'

89'

Eidsvold

Fredrikstad

1

Jensen

4

Molde

26

▼

3

23

7

20

16

▼

Ali

19

▼

Duman

9

⚽2

▼

Johansen

15

⚽

▼

1

8

4

23

▼

Notoane

24

Ness

3

Navarsete

17

▼

Stenseth

14

Kristengå

13

▼

Kristjáns

22

Henriksen

11

▼

Kornbakk

Manager: J. Dragsten

66'▲S. Teksum←▼I. Kristjánsson

73'▲J. Kolstad←▼O. Stenseth

84'▲R. Dahl←▼J. Kornbakk

84'▲S. Rudi←▼B. Notoane

Eidsvold substitutes

20Teksum5Kolstad9Dahl16Rudi21Rrahmani15Nielsen18Sørensen19Stenseth

Manager: B. Johansen

46'▲N. Solberg←▼H. Duman

64'▲Maikel←▼R. Alba

73'▲L. Reuterswärd←▼H. Johansen

73'▲K. Getz←▼A. Ali

80'▲O. Jansson←▼M. Nielsen

Fredrikstad substitutes

6Solberg11Maikel10Reuterswärd29Getz21Jansson13Karstensen17Zoulakis27Vestby30Hermansen

Match Recap: Eidsvold vs Fredrikstad

Fredrikstad beat Eidsvold 6-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on August 29, 2020.

Goals: H. Johansen (6', 64'), R. Alba (59'), N. Solberg (70', 89'), L. Reuterswärd (82'), S. Rudi (87').

The match was played at Myhrer Stadion in Eidsvoll.

Eidsvold vs Fredrikstad — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Eidsvold vs Fredrikstad