Eichstätt 0–3 Ingolstadt II: Result & Stats

Eichstätt

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Ingolstadt II

M. Wiezorrek 90+2'

F. Cavadias 88'

J. Kugel 54'

4/9/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 22Liqui-Moly-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Eichstätt51%

×Draw22%

Ingolstadt II27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EichstättExpected goals in this matchIngolstadt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.34

Eichstätt

1.93

Ingolstadt II

1.34

Eichstätt creates 44% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

2.29

creates per match

1.80

0.89

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Eichstätt

2.29

Ingolstadt II

1.80

allows per match

Eichstätt

0.89

Ingolstadt II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eichstätt+0.00on par

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eichstätt ↓

Ingolstadt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Eichstätt or draw

73%

Eichstätt or Ingolstadt II

78%

Draw or Ingolstadt II

49%

Winning margin

Eichstätt wins by 2+

29%

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eichstätt 1+ goals

85%

Eichstätt 2+ goals

57%

Eichstätt 3+ goals

30%

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals

74%

Ingolstadt II 2+ goals

39%

Ingolstadt II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Eichstätt (draw refunded)

66%

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eichstätt at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eichstätt attack 2.29 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.93

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Eichstätt defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eichstätt scores more

51%

level

22%

Ingolstadt II scores more

27%

Eichstätt at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

J. Kugel

88'

F. Cavadias

90+2'

M. Wiezorrek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff