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Eichstätt vs Illertissen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Eichstätt
Eichstätt
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Illertissen
Illertissen
P. Schittler 77'
D. Wolfsteiner 30'
4/25/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 31Liqui-Moly-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Eichstätt45%
×Draw24%
Illertissen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eichstätt
1.66
Illertissen
1.34

Eichstätt creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 95 away

creates per match

Eichstätt
1.75
Illertissen
1.53

allows per match

Eichstätt
1.15
Illertissen
1.57

finishing

Eichstätt+0.00on par
Illertissen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eichstätt ↓

Illertissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eichstätt or draw
69%
Eichstätt or Illertissen
76%
Draw or Illertissen
55%

Winning margin

Eichstätt wins by 2+
23%
Illertissen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eichstätt 1+ goals
81%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
49%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
23%
Illertissen 1+ goals
74%
Illertissen 2+ goals
39%
Illertissen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eichstätt (draw refunded)
59%
Illertissen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eichstätt at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

Illertissen away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.57 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eichstätt attack 1.75 + Illertissen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Illertissen attack 1.53 + Eichstätt defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eichstätt scores more
45%
level
24%
Illertissen scores more
31%

Eichstätt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
D. Wolfsteiner
77'
P. Schittler
Eichstätt
Illertissen
D. Rühl
Manager: D. Rühl
Holger Bachthaler
Manager: Holger Bachthaler

Regionalliga - Bayern: Eichstätt 2–0 Illertissen

Eichstätt beat Illertissen 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 25, 2026.

Goals: D. Wolfsteiner (30'), P. Schittler (77').

The match was played at Liqui-Moly-Stadion in Eichstätt.