Eichstätt 2–3 FC Wurzburger Kickers: Result & Stats

Eichstätt

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

FC Wurzburger Kickers

8/2/2022

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 4Liqui-Moly-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eichstätt29%

×Draw24%

FC Wurzburger Kickers46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EichstättExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.63

Eichstätt

1.25

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.63

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 30% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 54 away

1.75

creates per match

2.11

1.15

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Eichstätt

1.75

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.11

allows per match

Eichstätt

1.15

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eichstätt+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eichstätt ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Eichstätt or draw

54%

Eichstätt or FC Wurzburger Kickers

76%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

71%

Winning margin

Eichstätt wins by 2+

12%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Eichstätt 1+ goals

71%

Eichstätt 2+ goals

36%

Eichstätt 3+ goals

13%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

80%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

48%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Eichstätt (draw refunded)

39%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eichstätt at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eichstätt attack 1.75 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Eichstätt defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eichstätt scores more

29%

level

24%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

46%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff