Eichstätt 3–1 Coburg: Result & Stats

Eichstätt

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Coburg

J. Fries 85' (pen)

L. Schraufstetter 65'

N. Leipold 57'

F. Carl 48'

5/1/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 35Liqui-Moly-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eichstätt62%

×Draw19%

Coburg19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EichstättExpected goals in this matchCoburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.21

Eichstätt

2.32

Coburg

1.21

Eichstätt creates 92% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

2.29

creates per match

1.53

0.89

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Eichstätt

2.29

Coburg

1.53

allows per match

Eichstätt

0.89

Coburg

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eichstätt+0.00on par

Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eichstätt ↓

Coburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Eichstätt or draw

81%

Eichstätt or Coburg

81%

Draw or Coburg

38%

Winning margin

Eichstätt wins by 2+

40%

Coburg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Eichstätt 1+ goals

90%

Eichstätt 2+ goals

67%

Eichstätt 3+ goals

40%

Coburg 1+ goals

70%

Coburg 2+ goals

34%

Coburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Eichstätt (draw refunded)

77%

Coburg (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eichstätt at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eichstätt attack 2.29 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.32

Coburg attack 1.53 + Eichstätt defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Eichstätt scores more

62%

level

19%

Coburg scores more

19%

Eichstätt at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

F. Carl

57'

N. Leipold

65'

L. Schraufstetter

85'

J. FriesPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff