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Eichstätt vs ASV Neumarkt — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Eichstätt
Eichstätt
FT
3 – 0
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
2/4/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Eichstätt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eichstätt75%
×Draw14%
ASV Neumarkt11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eichstätt
3.00
ASV Neumarkt
1.10

Eichstätt creates 173% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Eichstätt
1.80
ASV Neumarkt
1.20

allows per match

Eichstätt
1.00
ASV Neumarkt
4.20

finishing

Eichstätt+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eichstätt ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Eichstätt or draw
89%
Eichstätt or ASV Neumarkt
86%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
25%

Winning margin

Eichstätt wins by 2+
55%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Eichstätt 1+ goals
95%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
79%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
56%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
67%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
30%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eichstätt (draw refunded)
87%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eichstätt at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eichstätt attack 1.80 + ASV Neumarkt defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.00

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.20 + Eichstätt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Eichstätt scores more
75%
level
14%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
11%

Eichstätt at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eichstätt vs ASV Neumarkt

Eichstätt beat ASV Neumarkt 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Eichstätt in Eichstätt.