Eibar 2–0 Villarreal II: Result & Stats

Eibar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Villarreal II

2/24/2023

Segunda División · Round 29Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eibar56%

×Draw25%

Villarreal II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EibarExpected goals in this matchVillarreal II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.81

Eibar

1.60

Villarreal II

0.81

Eibar creates 98% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 42 away

1.56

creates per match

0.81

0.82

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Eibar

1.56

Villarreal II

0.81

allows per match

Eibar

0.82

Villarreal II

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Villarreal II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Eibar or draw

81%

Eibar or Villarreal II

75%

Draw or Villarreal II

44%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+

30%

Villarreal II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals

80%

Eibar 2+ goals

47%

Eibar 3+ goals

22%

Villarreal II 1+ goals

56%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

19%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)

75%

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.56 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Eibar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eibar scores more

56%

level

25%

Villarreal II scores more

19%

Eibar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff