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Eibar vs Levante — Segunda División 2018

Eibar
Eibar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Levante
Levante
11/25/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Eibar43%
×Draw29%
Levante28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.24
Levante
0.94

Eibar creates 32% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 65 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.56
Levante
1.06

allows per match

Eibar
0.82
Levante
0.91

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
72%
Eibar or Levante
71%
Draw or Levante
57%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
19%
Levante wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
71%
Eibar 2+ goals
35%
Eibar 3+ goals
13%
Levante 1+ goals
61%
Levante 2+ goals
24%
Levante 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
61%
Levante (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Levante away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.56 + Levante defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.24

Levante attack 1.06 + Eibar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eibar scores more
43%
level
29%
Levante scores more
28%

Eibar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Eibar 3–1 Levante

Eibar beat Levante 3-1 in Segunda División on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar.