Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eibar vs Espanyol — La Liga 2018

Eibar
Eibar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Espanyol
Espanyol
1/21/2019La LigaLa Liga · Round 20Ipurua Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eibar46%
×Draw26%
Espanyol28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.44
Espanyol
1.07

Eibar creates 35% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 100 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.22
Espanyol
0.99

allows per match

Eibar
1.16
Espanyol
1.67

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Espanyol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Espanyol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
72%
Eibar or Espanyol
74%
Draw or Espanyol
54%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
22%
Espanyol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
76%
Eibar 2+ goals
42%
Eibar 3+ goals
18%
Espanyol 1+ goals
66%
Espanyol 2+ goals
29%
Espanyol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
62%
Espanyol (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Espanyol away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.22 + Espanyol defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Espanyol attack 0.99 + Eibar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eibar scores more
46%
level
26%
Espanyol scores more
28%

Eibar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Liga: Eibar 3–0 Espanyol

Eibar beat Espanyol 3-0 in La Liga on January 21, 2019.

The match was played at Ipurua Municipal Stadium in Eibar.