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Eibar III vs Zamudio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Eibar III
Eibar III
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Zamudio
Zamudio
9/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Estadio Municipal de Ipurua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eibar III62%
×Draw21%
Zamudio17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar III
2.00
Zamudio
0.93

Eibar III creates 115% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eibar III
1.53
Zamudio
0.59

allows per match

Eibar III
1.26
Zamudio
2.47

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par
Zamudio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

Zamudio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw
83%
Eibar III or Zamudio
79%
Draw or Zamudio
38%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+
38%
Zamudio wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals
86%
Eibar III 2+ goals
59%
Eibar III 3+ goals
32%
Zamudio 1+ goals
61%
Zamudio 2+ goals
24%
Zamudio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)
79%
Zamudio (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Zamudio away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + Zamudio defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zamudio attack 0.59 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Eibar III scores more
62%
level
21%
Zamudio scores more
17%

Eibar III at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Eibar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Eibar III 2–1 Zamudio

Eibar III beat Zamudio 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua in Eibar.