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Eibar III vs Santurtzi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Eibar III
Eibar III
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santurtzi
Santurtzi
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eibar III46%
×Draw26%
Santurtzi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar III
1.49
Santurtzi
1.11

Eibar III creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 64 away

creates per match

Eibar III
1.53
Santurtzi
0.97

allows per match

Eibar III
1.26
Santurtzi
1.45

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par
Santurtzi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

Santurtzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw
72%
Eibar III or Santurtzi
74%
Draw or Santurtzi
54%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+
23%
Santurtzi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals
77%
Eibar III 2+ goals
44%
Eibar III 3+ goals
19%
Santurtzi 1+ goals
67%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
30%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)
62%
Santurtzi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Santurtzi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + Santurtzi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Santurtzi attack 0.97 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eibar III scores more
46%
level
26%
Santurtzi scores more
28%

Eibar III at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eibar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Eibar III 2–1 Santurtzi

Eibar III beat Santurtzi 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior in Eibar.