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Eibar III vs San Viator — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Eibar III
Eibar III
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
San Viator
San Viator
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eibar III70%
×Draw17%
San Viator13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar III
2.47
San Viator
0.96

Eibar III creates 157% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eibar III
1.53
San Viator
0.65

allows per match

Eibar III
1.26
San Viator
3.41

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par
San Viator+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

San Viator →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw
87%
Eibar III or San Viator
83%
Draw or San Viator
30%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+
48%
San Viator wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals
91%
Eibar III 2+ goals
70%
Eibar III 3+ goals
44%
San Viator 1+ goals
62%
San Viator 2+ goals
25%
San Viator 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)
84%
San Viator (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

San Viator away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + San Viator defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.47

San Viator attack 0.65 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Eibar III scores more
70%
level
17%
San Viator scores more
13%

Eibar III at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Eibar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Eibar III 4–1 San Viator

Eibar III beat San Viator 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior in Eibar.