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Eibar III vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Eibar III
Eibar III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
1/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Polideportivo Agorrosin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eibar III42%
×Draw27%
San Ignacio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar III
1.35
San Ignacio
1.13

Eibar III creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 112 away

creates per match

Eibar III
1.53
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Eibar III
1.26
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw
69%
Eibar III or San Ignacio
73%
Draw or San Ignacio
58%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+
19%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals
74%
Eibar III 2+ goals
39%
Eibar III 3+ goals
15%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
68%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
31%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)
57%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eibar III scores more
42%
level
27%
San Ignacio scores more
31%

Eibar III at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eibar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eibar III vs San Ignacio

Eibar III beat San Ignacio 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Agorrosin in Bergara.