Eibar III 2–1 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Eibar III

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Real Sociedad III

9/7/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Estadio Municipal de Ipurua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eibar III39%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad III36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eibar IIIExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.46

Eibar III

1.52

Real Sociedad III

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 44 away

1.53

creates per match

1.66

1.26

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Eibar III

1.53

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Eibar III

1.26

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw

64%

Eibar III or Real Sociedad III

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

61%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+

19%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals

78%

Eibar III 2+ goals

45%

Eibar III 3+ goals

20%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

43%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)

52%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eibar III scores more

39%

level

24%

Real Sociedad III scores more

36%

Eibar III at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eibar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Eibar III 2–1 Real Sociedad III

Eibar III beat Real Sociedad III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua in Eibar.

Eibar III vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Eibar III 2–1 Real Sociedad III