Eibar III 1–1 Portugalete: Result & Stats

Eibar III

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portugalete

12/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eibar III33%

×Draw26%

Portugalete41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eibar IIIExpected goals in this matchPortugalete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.41

Eibar III

1.25

Portugalete

1.41

Portugalete creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

1.53

creates per match

1.56

1.26

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Eibar III

1.53

Portugalete

1.56

allows per match

Eibar III

1.26

Portugalete

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par

Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

Portugalete →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw

59%

Eibar III or Portugalete

74%

Draw or Portugalete

67%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+

14%

Portugalete wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals

71%

Eibar III 2+ goals

36%

Eibar III 3+ goals

13%

Portugalete 1+ goals

76%

Portugalete 2+ goals

41%

Portugalete 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)

45%

Portugalete (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Portugalete away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + Portugalete defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.25

Portugalete attack 1.56 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eibar III scores more

33%

level

26%

Portugalete scores more

41%

Portugalete at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff