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Eibar III vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Eibar III
Eibar III
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
3/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eibar III44%
×Draw26%
Lagun Onak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar III
1.43
Lagun Onak
1.11

Eibar III creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 114 away

creates per match

Eibar III
1.53
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Eibar III
1.26
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw
71%
Eibar III or Lagun Onak
74%
Draw or Lagun Onak
56%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+
21%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals
76%
Eibar III 2+ goals
42%
Eibar III 3+ goals
17%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
67%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
30%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)
60%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eibar III scores more
44%
level
26%
Lagun Onak scores more
29%

Eibar III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eibar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eibar III vs Lagun Onak

Eibar III beat Lagun Onak 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior in Eibar.