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Ehlerange vs Jeunesse Canach — Cup 2020

Ehlerange
Ehlerange
CANC
00:00
Jeunesse Canach
Jeunesse Canach
3/7/2021CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ehlerange28%
×Draw20%
Jeunesse Canach52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ehlerange
1.67
Jeunesse Canach
2.33

Jeunesse Canach creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ehlerange
2.00
Jeunesse Canach
2.67

allows per match

Ehlerange
2.00
Jeunesse Canach
1.33

finishing

Ehlerange+0.00on par
Jeunesse Canach+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehlerange ↓

Jeunesse Canach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ehlerange or draw
48%
Ehlerange or Jeunesse Canach
80%
Draw or Jeunesse Canach
72%

Winning margin

Ehlerange wins by 2+
13%
Jeunesse Canach wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Ehlerange 1+ goals
81%
Ehlerange 2+ goals
50%
Ehlerange 3+ goals
23%
Jeunesse Canach 1+ goals
90%
Jeunesse Canach 2+ goals
67%
Jeunesse Canach 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Ehlerange (draw refunded)
35%
Jeunesse Canach (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehlerange at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Jeunesse Canach away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehlerange attack 2.00 + Jeunesse Canach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Jeunesse Canach attack 2.67 + Ehlerange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ehlerange scores more
28%
level
20%
Jeunesse Canach scores more
52%

Jeunesse Canach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jeunesse Canach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ehlerange vs Jeunesse Canach — Match Preview

Ehlerange face Jeunesse Canach on March 7, 2021 in this Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.