Ehlerange 1–3 Fola Esch: Result & Stats | Cup

Ehlerange

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Fola Esch

10/5/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Fernand Schuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ehlerange17%

×Draw17%

Fola Esch66%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EhlerangeExpected goals in this matchFola Esch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.73

Ehlerange

1.36

Fola Esch

2.73

Fola Esch creates 101% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

3.45

2.00

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Ehlerange

2.00

Fola Esch

3.45

allows per match

Ehlerange

2.00

Fola Esch

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ehlerange+0.00on par

Fola Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehlerange ↓

Fola Esch →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Ehlerange or draw

34%

Ehlerange or Fola Esch

83%

Draw or Fola Esch

83%

Winning margin

Ehlerange wins by 2+

Fola Esch wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Ehlerange 1+ goals

74%

Ehlerange 2+ goals

39%

Ehlerange 3+ goals

16%

Fola Esch 1+ goals

93%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

75%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Ehlerange (draw refunded)

21%

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ehlerange at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Fola Esch away — creates 3.45, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ehlerange attack 2.00 + Fola Esch defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Fola Esch attack 3.45 + Ehlerange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ehlerange scores more

17%

level

17%

Fola Esch scores more

66%

Fola Esch at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Fola Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff