Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ehlerange vs Berdenia Berbourg — Cup 2020

Ehlerange
Ehlerange
FT
4 – 3
Berdenia Berbourg
Berdenia Berbourg
10/17/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Fernand Schuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ehlerange40%
×Draw20%
Berdenia Berbourg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ehlerange
2.08
Berdenia Berbourg
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ehlerange
2.00
Berdenia Berbourg
2.17

allows per match

Ehlerange
2.00
Berdenia Berbourg
2.17

finishing

Ehlerange+0.00on par
Berdenia Berbourg+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehlerange ↓

Berdenia Berbourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Ehlerange or draw
60%
Ehlerange or Berdenia Berbourg
80%
Draw or Berdenia Berbourg
60%

Winning margin

Ehlerange wins by 2+
22%
Berdenia Berbourg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ehlerange 1+ goals
87%
Ehlerange 2+ goals
61%
Ehlerange 3+ goals
34%
Berdenia Berbourg 1+ goals
87%
Berdenia Berbourg 2+ goals
61%
Berdenia Berbourg 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Ehlerange (draw refunded)
50%
Berdenia Berbourg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehlerange at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Berdenia Berbourg away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehlerange attack 2.00 + Berdenia Berbourg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Berdenia Berbourg attack 2.17 + Ehlerange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ehlerange scores more
40%
level
20%
Berdenia Berbourg scores more
40%

Ehlerange at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ehlerange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ehlerange vs Berdenia Berbourg

Ehlerange beat Berdenia Berbourg 4-3 in Cup on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Fernand Schuman in Ehlerange.