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Budučnost Krušik vs Takovo — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
CANC
00:00
Takovo
Takovo
5/2/2020Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Budučnost Krušik51%
×Draw28%
Takovo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budučnost Krušik
1.36
Takovo
0.78

Budučnost Krušik creates 74% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 101 away

creates per match

Budučnost Krušik
1.47
Takovo
0.80

allows per match

Budučnost Krušik
0.76
Takovo
1.25

finishing

Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par
Takovo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budučnost Krušik ↓

Takovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Budučnost Krušik or draw
79%
Budučnost Krušik or Takovo
72%
Draw or Takovo
49%

Winning margin

Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
24%
Takovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
74%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
39%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
16%
Takovo 1+ goals
54%
Takovo 2+ goals
18%
Takovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
70%
Takovo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budučnost Krušik at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Takovo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.25 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budučnost Krušik attack 1.47 + Takovo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Takovo attack 0.80 + Budučnost Krušik defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Budučnost Krušik scores more
51%
level
28%
Takovo scores more
21%

Budučnost Krušik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Budučnost Krušik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Budučnost Krušik face Takovo (Srpska Liga - West)

Srpska Liga - West returns with Budučnost Krušik hosting Takovo. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.