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Egypt vs Zimbabwe — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Egypt
Egypt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
M. Salah 90'
O. Marmoush 64'
P. Dube 20'
12/22/2025Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Stade Adrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Egypt57%
×Draw24%
Zimbabwe19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt
1.73
Zimbabwe
0.88

Egypt creates 97% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Egypt
2.15
Zimbabwe
0.90

allows per match

Egypt
0.85
Zimbabwe
1.30

finishing

Egypt+0.00on par
Zimbabwe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt ↓

Zimbabwe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Egypt or draw
81%
Egypt or Zimbabwe
76%
Draw or Zimbabwe
43%

Winning margin

Egypt wins by 2+
32%
Zimbabwe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Egypt 1+ goals
82%
Egypt 2+ goals
52%
Egypt 3+ goals
25%
Zimbabwe 1+ goals
59%
Zimbabwe 2+ goals
22%
Zimbabwe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Egypt (draw refunded)
75%
Zimbabwe (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Zimbabwe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt attack 2.15 + Zimbabwe defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zimbabwe attack 0.90 + Egypt defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Egypt scores more
57%
level
24%
Zimbabwe scores more
19%

Egypt at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. SalahEgyptEgypt · M
8.6

Match Events

7'
Washington Navaya
20'
P. Dube↳ E. Jalai
33'
Marwan Attia
34'
Mostafa Mohamed← E. Ashour
44'
Mahmoud Trézéguet
46'
M. Bonne← W. Navaya
57'
Godknows Murwira
64'
O. Marmoush↳ M. Hamdi
66'
I. Adel← M. Attia
67'
Zizo← Trezeguet
72'
P. Padera← D. Msendami
72'
T. Chirewa← P. Dube
82'
A. Fatouh← M. Hamdi
88'
T. Maswanhise← E. Jalai
90'
M. Salah↳ Mostafa Mohamed

Possession

78%Egypt

Shots

35Egypt

Pass accuracy

61%Egypt

Statistics

EgyptZimbabwe
Overview
78%Possession22%
35Total Shots8
8Corners3
13Fouls15
Shots
35Total Shots8
11On Target3
13Off Target4
11Blocked1
24Inside Box4
11Outside Box4
Passing
78%Possession22%
682Total Passes197
600Accurate Passes111
88%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
2Saves9
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Egypt vs Zimbabwe

Egypt beat Zimbabwe 2-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on December 22, 2025.

Goals: P. Dube (20'), O. Marmoush (64'), M. Salah (90').

Egypt controlled possession (78%) and registered 35 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Adrar in Agadir.