Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Egypt vs Tunisia — Friendlies 2026

Egypt
Egypt
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tunisia
Tunisia
Omar Kamal 34'
Hamdi Fathi 7' (OG)
Aissa Laïdouni 3'
9/12/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 130 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Egypt60%
×Draw25%
Tunisia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt
1.56
Tunisia
0.64

Egypt creates 144% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Egypt
1.56
Tunisia
0.72

allows per match

Egypt
0.56
Tunisia
1.56

finishing

Egypt+0.00on par
Tunisia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt ↓

Tunisia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Egypt or draw
85%
Egypt or Tunisia
75%
Draw or Tunisia
40%

Winning margin

Egypt wins by 2+
32%
Tunisia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Egypt 1+ goals
79%
Egypt 2+ goals
46%
Egypt 3+ goals
21%
Tunisia 1+ goals
47%
Tunisia 2+ goals
14%
Tunisia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Egypt (draw refunded)
80%
Tunisia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Tunisia away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt attack 1.56 + Tunisia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tunisia attack 0.72 + Egypt defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Egypt scores more
60%
level
25%
Tunisia scores more
15%

Egypt at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Aissa Laïdouni↳ Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane
7'
Hamdi FathiOwn goal
34'
Omar Kamal
43'
Omar Marmoush
43'
Aissa Laïdouni
45'
Yassine Meriah
64'
Mostafa Fathy← Tarek Hamed
64'
Mahmoud Hamada← Zizo
64'
Alaa Ghram← Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane
64'
Hamza Rafia← Ali Maâloul
69'
Ahmed Ramadan
76'
Ibrahim Adel← Omar Kamal
76'
Mohamed Hamdi← Omar Marmoush
82'
Hannibal Mejbri← Elias Achouri
82'
Amor Layouni← Youssef Msakni
86'
Ibrahim Adel
86'
Osama Faisal← Hamdi Fathi
86'
Sam Morsy← Hossam Abdelmaguid
88'
Mostafa Mohamed
90'
Aymen Dahmen
90'
Yan Valery← Wajdi Kechrida

Statistics

EgyptTunisia
Overview
5Corners1
Discipline
4Yellow Cards3

Friendlies: Egypt 1–3 Tunisia

Tunisia beat Egypt 3-1 in Friendlies on September 12, 2023.

Goals: Aissa Laïdouni (3'), Hamdi Fathi (7' o.g.), Omar Kamal (34').

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.