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Egypt vs Tanzania — Friendlies 2026

Egypt
Egypt
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tanzania
Tanzania
1/7/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Egypt63%
×Draw24%
Tanzania13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt
1.60
Tanzania
0.56

Egypt creates 186% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Egypt
1.63
Tanzania
0.67

allows per match

Egypt
0.44
Tanzania
1.58

finishing

Egypt+0.00on par
Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt ↓

Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Egypt or draw
87%
Egypt or Tanzania
76%
Draw or Tanzania
37%

Winning margin

Egypt wins by 2+
35%
Tanzania wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Egypt 1+ goals
80%
Egypt 2+ goals
47%
Egypt 3+ goals
22%
Tanzania 1+ goals
43%
Tanzania 2+ goals
11%
Tanzania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Egypt (draw refunded)
83%
Tanzania (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Tanzania away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt attack 1.63 + Tanzania defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tanzania attack 0.67 + Egypt defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Egypt scores more
63%
level
24%
Tanzania scores more
13%

Egypt at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Egypt 2–0 Tanzania

Egypt beat Tanzania 2-0 in Friendlies on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.