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Egypt vs South Africa — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Egypt
Egypt
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
South Africa
South Africa
M. Salah 45' (pen)
12/26/2025Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Adrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Egypt50%
×Draw26%
South Africa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt
1.52
South Africa
0.98

Egypt creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Egypt
2.15
South Africa
1.10

allows per match

Egypt
0.85
South Africa
0.90

finishing

Egypt+0.00on par
South Africa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt ↓

South Africa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Egypt or draw
76%
Egypt or South Africa
74%
Draw or South Africa
50%

Winning margin

Egypt wins by 2+
25%
South Africa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Egypt 1+ goals
78%
Egypt 2+ goals
45%
Egypt 3+ goals
20%
South Africa 1+ goals
62%
South Africa 2+ goals
26%
South Africa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Egypt (draw refunded)
67%
South Africa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

South Africa away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt attack 2.15 + South Africa defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.52

South Africa attack 1.10 + Egypt defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Egypt scores more
50%
level
26%
South Africa scores more
24%

Egypt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
M. El ShenawyEgyptEgypt · G
8.9

Match Events

20'
Teboho Mokoena
30'
Mohamed Hany
42'
Mohamed SalahPenalty confirmed
43'
Khuliso Mudau
43'
Lyle Foster
45+2'
Mohamed Hany
45+2'
Mohamed Hany
45'
M. SalahPenalty
46'
E. Ashour← O. Marmoush
46'
S. Mbule← T. Mbatha
69'
R. Mofokeng← O. Appollis
75'
E. Makgopa← S. Sithole
80'
M. Lasheen← Zizo
80'
M. Shehata← Trezeguet
80'
E. Mokwana← T. Moremi
90+2'
Teboho MokoenaPenalty cancelled
90'
O. Faisal← M. Salah

Possession

36%Egypt

Shots

6Egypt

Pass accuracy

47%Egypt

Statistics

EgyptSouth
Overview
36%Possession64%
6Total Shots18
4Corners7
10Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots18
3On Target6
2Off Target9
1Blocked3
4Inside Box7
2Outside Box11
Passing
36%Possession64%
309Total Passes537
245Accurate Passes475
79%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Egypt vs South Africa

Egypt beat South Africa 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on December 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Salah (45' pen).

South Africa controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Adrar in Agadir.