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Egypt vs Mozambique — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Egypt
Egypt
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mozambique
Mozambique
1/14/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Egypt63%
×Draw21%
Mozambique17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt
2.06
Mozambique
0.96

Egypt creates 115% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Egypt
2.25
Mozambique
1.00

allows per match

Egypt
0.92
Mozambique
1.88

finishing

Egypt+0.00on par
Mozambique+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt ↓

Mozambique →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Egypt or draw
83%
Egypt or Mozambique
79%
Draw or Mozambique
37%

Winning margin

Egypt wins by 2+
39%
Mozambique wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Egypt 1+ goals
87%
Egypt 2+ goals
61%
Egypt 3+ goals
34%
Mozambique 1+ goals
62%
Mozambique 2+ goals
25%
Mozambique 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Egypt (draw refunded)
79%
Mozambique (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Mozambique away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt attack 2.25 + Mozambique defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

Mozambique attack 1.00 + Egypt defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Egypt scores more
63%
level
21%
Mozambique scores more
17%

Egypt at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Egypt vs Mozambique

Egypt and Mozambique drew 2-2 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan.