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Egypt vs Ghana — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Egypt
Egypt
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ghana
Ghana
1/18/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Egypt50%
×Draw25%
Ghana25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt
1.56
Ghana
1.02

Egypt creates 53% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Egypt
2.25
Ghana
1.13

allows per match

Egypt
0.92
Ghana
0.88

finishing

Egypt+0.00on par
Ghana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt ↓

Ghana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Egypt or draw
75%
Egypt or Ghana
75%
Draw or Ghana
50%

Winning margin

Egypt wins by 2+
26%
Ghana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Egypt 1+ goals
79%
Egypt 2+ goals
46%
Egypt 3+ goals
21%
Ghana 1+ goals
64%
Ghana 2+ goals
27%
Ghana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Egypt (draw refunded)
67%
Ghana (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Ghana away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt attack 2.25 + Ghana defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ghana attack 1.13 + Egypt defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Egypt scores more
50%
level
25%
Ghana scores more
25%

Egypt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Egypt 2–2 Ghana

Egypt and Ghana drew 2-2 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan.