Egypt U20 2–1 Bahrain U20: Result & Stats

Egypt U20

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bahrain U20

M. Ahmed 90'

H. Salim 81'

K. Al Khalaf 72'

9/4/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Egypt U2069%

×Draw19%

Bahrain U2012%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Egypt U20Expected goals in this matchBahrain U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.70

Egypt U20

2.06

Bahrain U20

0.70

Egypt U20 creates 194% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

0.40

1.00

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Egypt U20

1.33

Bahrain U20

0.40

allows per match

Egypt U20

1.00

Bahrain U20

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egypt U20+0.00on par

Bahrain U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt U20 ↓

Bahrain U20 →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Egypt U20 or draw

88%

Egypt U20 or Bahrain U20

81%

Draw or Bahrain U20

31%

Winning margin

Egypt U20 wins by 2+

44%

Bahrain U20 wins by 2+

Team goals

Egypt U20 1+ goals

87%

Egypt U20 2+ goals

61%

Egypt U20 3+ goals

34%

Bahrain U20 1+ goals

50%

Bahrain U20 2+ goals

16%

Bahrain U20 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Egypt U20 (draw refunded)

86%

Bahrain U20 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Egypt U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bahrain U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Egypt U20 attack 1.33 + Bahrain U20 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Bahrain U20 attack 0.40 + Egypt U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Egypt U20 scores more

69%

level

19%

Bahrain U20 scores more

12%

Egypt U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Egypt U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'

K. Al Khalaf

81'

H. Salim

90'

M. Ahmed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff