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Egypt U19 vs Russia U19 — Friendlies 2026

Egypt U19
Egypt U19
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Russia U19
Russia U19
Unknown 90', 54'
V. Golubev 77', 12'
I. Firov 68'
N. Massalyga 65'
M. Ivanov 1'
6/9/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalRight to Dream Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Egypt U1933%
×Draw21%
Russia U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt U19
1.75
Russia U19
2.08

Russia U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Egypt U19
1.83
Russia U19
2.67

allows per match

Egypt U19
1.50
Russia U19
1.67

finishing

Egypt U19+0.00on par
Russia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt U19 ↓

Russia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Egypt U19 or draw
54%
Egypt U19 or Russia U19
79%
Draw or Russia U19
67%

Winning margin

Egypt U19 wins by 2+
17%
Russia U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Egypt U19 1+ goals
83%
Egypt U19 2+ goals
52%
Egypt U19 3+ goals
25%
Russia U19 1+ goals
87%
Russia U19 2+ goals
61%
Russia U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Egypt U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Russia U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Russia U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt U19 attack 1.83 + Russia U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Russia U19 attack 2.67 + Egypt U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Egypt U19 scores more
33%
level
21%
Russia U19 scores more
46%

Russia U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Russia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
M. Ivanov
12'
V. Golubev
54'
65'
N. Massalyga
68'
I. Firov
77'
V. Golubev
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Egypt U19 2–5 Russia U19

Russia U19 beat Egypt U19 5-2 in Friendlies on June 9, 2026.

Goals: M. Ivanov (1'), V. Golubev (12', 77'), ? (54', 90'), N. Massalyga (65'), I. Firov (68').

The match was played at Right to Dream Stadium.