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EGS Gafsa vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
2/26/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

EGS Gafsa59%
×Draw27%
Sporting Ben Arous14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.44
Sporting Ben Arous
0.55

EGS Gafsa creates 162% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 46 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
86%
EGS Gafsa or Sporting Ben Arous
73%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
41%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
30%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
76%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
42%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
18%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
42%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
11%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
81%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
59%
level
27%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
14%

EGS Gafsa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: EGS Gafsa 4–0 Sporting Ben Arous

EGS Gafsa beat Sporting Ben Arous 4-0 in Ligue 2 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du 7 Novembre in Gafsa.