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EGS Gafsa vs Sfax Railways — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
1 – 1
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
11/21/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

EGS Gafsa52%
×Draw28%
Sfax Railways21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.38
Sfax Railways
0.76

EGS Gafsa creates 82% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
Sfax Railways
0.97

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
Sfax Railways
1.14

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
79%
EGS Gafsa or Sfax Railways
72%
Draw or Sfax Railways
48%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
25%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
75%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
40%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
16%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
53%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
18%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
71%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
52%
level
28%
Sfax Railways scores more
21%

EGS Gafsa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EGS Gafsa vs Sfax Railways

EGS Gafsa and Sfax Railways drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 7 Novembre in Gafsa.