EGS Gafsa 3–0 Menzel Nour: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

EGS Gafsa

FT

3 – 0

Menzel Nour

2/13/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

EGS Gafsa69%

×Draw21%

Menzel Nour10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EGS GafsaExpected goals in this matchMenzel Nour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.50

EGS Gafsa

1.81

Menzel Nour

0.50

EGS Gafsa creates 262% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

1.63

creates per match

0.45

0.55

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

EGS Gafsa

1.63

Menzel Nour

0.45

allows per match

EGS Gafsa

0.55

Menzel Nour

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Menzel Nour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw

90%

EGS Gafsa or Menzel Nour

79%

Draw or Menzel Nour

31%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

42%

Menzel Nour wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

84%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

54%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

27%

Menzel Nour 1+ goals

39%

Menzel Nour 2+ goals

9%

Menzel Nour 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

88%

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Menzel Nour away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Menzel Nour defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Menzel Nour attack 0.45 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more

69%

level

21%

Menzel Nour scores more

10%

EGS Gafsa at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff