Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

EGS Gafsa vs EM Mahdia — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
L. Bargougui 19' (pen)
5/6/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade Municipal 17 Décembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

EGS Gafsa57%
×Draw27%
EM Mahdia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.45
EM Mahdia
0.64

EGS Gafsa creates 127% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
EM Mahdia
0.73

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
EM Mahdia
1.27

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
84%
EGS Gafsa or EM Mahdia
73%
Draw or EM Mahdia
43%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
29%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
77%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
42%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
18%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
47%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
14%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
78%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
57%
level
27%
EM Mahdia scores more
16%

EGS Gafsa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
R. Yaakoubi
19'
L. BargouguiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EGS Gafsa vs EM Mahdia

EGS Gafsa beat EM Mahdia 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 6, 2023.

Goals: L. Bargougui (19' pen).

The match was played at Stade Municipal 17 Décembre in Sidi Bouzid.