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EGS Gafsa vs Djerba — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Djerba
Djerba
5/20/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Municipal 17 Décembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

EGS Gafsa61%
×Draw26%
Djerba13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.50
Djerba
0.55

EGS Gafsa creates 173% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
Djerba
0.55

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
Djerba
1.36

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
Djerba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Djerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
87%
EGS Gafsa or Djerba
74%
Draw or Djerba
39%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
32%
Djerba wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
78%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
44%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
19%
Djerba 1+ goals
42%
Djerba 2+ goals
11%
Djerba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
82%
Djerba (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Djerba away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Djerba defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Djerba attack 0.55 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
61%
level
26%
Djerba scores more
13%

EGS Gafsa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EGS Gafsa vs Djerba

EGS Gafsa beat Djerba 2-0 in Ligue 2 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal 17 Décembre in Sidi Bouzid.