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EGS Gafsa vs Ariana — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ariana
Ariana
12/7/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

EGS Gafsa60%
×Draw24%
Ariana16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.67
Ariana
0.72

EGS Gafsa creates 132% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
Ariana
0.89

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
Ariana
1.71

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
84%
EGS Gafsa or Ariana
76%
Draw or Ariana
40%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
34%
Ariana wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
81%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
50%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
23%
Ariana 1+ goals
51%
Ariana 2+ goals
16%
Ariana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
79%
Ariana (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ariana attack 0.89 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
60%
level
24%
Ariana scores more
16%

EGS Gafsa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EGS Gafsa vs Ariana

EGS Gafsa and Ariana drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on December 7, 2025.