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Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Veleçiku Koplik — 1st Division 2019

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
2/1/20201st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Hasan Zyla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë62%
×Draw25%
Veleçiku Koplik14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.60
Veleçiku Koplik
0.60

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 167% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.50
Veleçiku Koplik
0.79

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.41
Veleçiku Koplik
1.71

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par
Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Veleçiku Koplik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw
86%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Veleçiku Koplik
75%
Draw or Veleçiku Koplik
38%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
34%
Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
80%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
47%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
22%
Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
45%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
12%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
82%
Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Veleçiku Koplik away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.50 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.79 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
62%
level
25%
Veleçiku Koplik scores more
14%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0–0 Veleçiku Koplik

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Veleçiku Koplik drew 0-0 in 1st Division on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Hasan Zyla in Rrogozhinë.