Egnatia Rrogozhinë 4–1 Turbina Cërrik

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Turbina Cërrik

3/6/2021

1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë64%

×Draw23%

Turbina Cërrik13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Egnatia RrogozhinëExpected goals in this matchTurbina Cërrik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.62

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.71

Turbina Cërrik

0.62

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 176% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 52 away

1.50

creates per match

0.83

0.41

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.50

Turbina Cërrik

0.83

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.41

Turbina Cërrik

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Turbina Cërrik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw

87%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Turbina Cërrik

77%

Draw or Turbina Cërrik

36%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+

37%

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals

82%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals

51%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals

24%

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals

46%

Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals

13%

Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)

83%

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.50 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more

64%

level

23%

Turbina Cërrik scores more

13%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff