Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Besëlidhja Lezhë

12/21/2019

1st Division · Round 12Stadiumi Hasan Zyla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë58%

×Draw26%

Besëlidhja Lezhë16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Egnatia RrogozhinëExpected goals in this matchBesëlidhja Lezhë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.64

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.48

Besëlidhja Lezhë

0.64

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 131% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 51 away

1.50

creates per match

0.86

0.41

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.50

Besëlidhja Lezhë

0.86

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.41

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw

84%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Besëlidhja Lezhë

74%

Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë

42%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+

30%

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals

77%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals

43%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals

19%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals

47%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals

14%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)

78%

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.50 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more

58%

level

26%

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more

16%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff