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Egersund vs Vard — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Egersund
Egersund
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vard
Vard
9/3/20222. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Egersund Idrettsparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Egersund66%
×Draw18%
Vard16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egersund
2.39
Vard
1.08

Egersund creates 121% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 52 away

creates per match

Egersund
2.76
Vard
1.10

allows per match

Egersund
1.05
Vard
2.02

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par
Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

Vard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Egersund or draw
84%
Egersund or Vard
82%
Draw or Vard
34%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+
44%
Vard wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals
91%
Egersund 2+ goals
69%
Egersund 3+ goals
42%
Vard 1+ goals
66%
Vard 2+ goals
29%
Vard 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)
81%
Vard (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Vard away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 2.76 + Vard defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.39

Vard attack 1.10 + Egersund defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Egersund scores more
66%
level
18%
Vard scores more
16%

Egersund at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Egersund 1 – 1 Vard

Egersund and Vard drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Egersund Idrettsparken in Egersund.