Egersund 4–0 Sola: Result & Stats

Egersund

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sola

B. Sumareh 90', 26'

M. Naglestad 45'

M. González 14'

5/18/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 6Egersund Idrettsparken (Egersund)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Egersund71%

×Draw16%

Sola13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EgersundExpected goals in this matchSola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

1.18

Egersund

2.84

Sola

1.18

Egersund creates 141% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

2.76

creates per match

1.31

1.05

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Egersund

2.76

Sola

1.31

allows per match

Egersund

1.05

Sola

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par

Sola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

Sola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Egersund or draw

87%

Egersund or Sola

84%

Draw or Sola

29%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+

50%

Sola wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals

94%

Egersund 2+ goals

77%

Egersund 3+ goals

53%

Sola 1+ goals

69%

Sola 2+ goals

33%

Sola 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)

84%

Sola (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Sola away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 2.76 + Sola defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.84

Sola attack 1.31 + Egersund defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Egersund scores more

71%

level

16%

Sola scores more

13%

Egersund at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

26'

45'

61'

66'

M. Perttamo← M. Naglestad

72'

S. Larsen← C. Sleveland

72'

M. Madsen← O. Lilleås

78'

K. Grande← M. Bjørlo

78'

K. Ehigiator← H. Meinseth

90'

B. Sumareh

Egersund

Sola

12

28

2

5

23

24

14

88

▼

Lilleås

16

▼

Svela

11

▼

8

1

9

33

21

⚽

4

22

5

7

▼

Sleveland

19

▼

Bjørlo

42

⚽2

Sumareh

11

⚽

▼

Naglestad

Manager: O. Bijan

66'▲M. Perttamo←▼M. Naglestad

72'▲S. Larsen←▼C. Sleveland

78'▲K. Grande←▼M. Bjørlo

Egersund substitutes

45Perttamo8Larsen10Grande15Haugstad20Cordero23Remme88Flasza

Manager: O. Elvestad

61'▲A. Ravndal←▼M. Svela

72'▲M. Madsen←▼O. Lilleås

78'▲K. Ehigiator←▼H. Meinseth

Sola substitutes

7Ravndal20Madsen19Ehigiator3Stålesen13Sveingard25Jonassen21Alsaker

2. Division - Group 1: Egersund 4–0 Sola

Egersund beat Sola 4-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on May 18, 2019.

Goals: M. González (14'), B. Sumareh (26', 90'), M. Naglestad (45').

The match was played at Egersund Idrettsparken (Egersund).

Egersund vs Sola — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Egersund 4–0 Sola