Egersund 2–1 Raufoss: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Egersund

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Raufoss

S. Vatne 35'

N. Tornvig 8'

F. F. Da Silva 53'

5/6/2026

1. Division · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Egersund46%

×Draw23%

Raufoss31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EgersundExpected goals in this matchRaufoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.39

Egersund

1.75

Raufoss

1.39

Egersund creates 26% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 99 away

1.65

creates per match

1.32

1.45

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Egersund

1.65

Raufoss

1.32

allows per match

Egersund

1.45

Raufoss

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par

Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

Raufoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Egersund or draw

69%

Egersund or Raufoss

77%

Draw or Raufoss

54%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+

25%

Raufoss wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals

83%

Egersund 2+ goals

52%

Egersund 3+ goals

25%

Raufoss 1+ goals

75%

Raufoss 2+ goals

40%

Raufoss 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)

60%

Raufoss (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 1.65 + Raufoss defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

Raufoss attack 1.32 + Egersund defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Egersund scores more

46%

level

23%

Raufoss scores more

31%

Egersund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

N. Tornvig↳ J. Ekeland

35'

S. Vatne↳ N. Tornvig

53'

F. F. Da Silva↳ E. Asvestad

68'

H. Kleppa← J. Ekeland

85'

P. Hovland← N. Tornvig

90+1'

J. Gregersen← S. Vatne

Egersund

Raufoss

1

2

11

4

3

A

23

13

8

22

⚽

9

10

1

21

31

3

17

8

22

27

⚽

▼

Vatne

7

⚽A

▼

Tornvig

9

Kapskarmo

16

A

▼

Ekeland

Manager: Endre Eide

68'▲H. Kleppa←▼J. Ekeland

85'▲P. Hovland←▼N. Tornvig

90+1'▲J. Gregersen←▼S. Vatne

Egersund substitutes

12Bergene2Kleppa6Saetherbo15Diallo18Hovland20Hokstad25Gregersen28Chrupalla91Davis

Manager: Kasey Wehrman

Raufoss substitutes

12D.15Conno16Larsen18Engebakken20Elmi25Engebakken30Korsaksel

Match Recap: Egersund vs Raufoss

Egersund beat Raufoss 2-1 in 1. Division on May 6, 2026.

Goals: N. Tornvig (8'), S. Vatne (35'), F. F. Da Silva (53').

Egersund vs Raufoss — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Egersund vs Raufoss