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Egersund vs jerv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Egersund
Egersund
FT
1 – 1
jerv
jerv
6/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Egersund Idrettsparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Egersund45%
×Draw20%
jerv36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egersund
2.29
jerv
2.04

Egersund creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Egersund
2.29
jerv
1.21

allows per match

Egersund
2.86
jerv
2.29

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par
jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

jerv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Egersund or draw
64%
Egersund or jerv
80%
Draw or jerv
55%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+
26%
jerv wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals
90%
Egersund 2+ goals
66%
Egersund 3+ goals
40%
jerv 1+ goals
87%
jerv 2+ goals
60%
jerv 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)
56%
jerv (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

jerv away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 2.29 + jerv defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.29

jerv attack 1.21 + Egersund defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Egersund scores more
45%
level
20%
jerv scores more
36%

Egersund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Egersund 1 – 1 jerv

Egersund and jerv drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 22, 2020.

The match was played at Egersund Idrettsparken in Egersund.